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Though people do underestimate the chances of divorce, I don't think it's simply an oversight. It's also a commitment strategy. People intuitively know that the more thoughtfully they prepare to exit their marriage the more likely they are to exit.

Caplan writes:

But aren't monogamous contracts "unrealistic"? This claim makes no sense. If 50% of people who vow life-long monogamy keep their promise, what's "unrealistic" about it? Monogamy is no more unrealistic than hundreds of promises that we expect people to keep - to show up for work on time, buy lunch next time, pay their workers, or give dissatisfied customers their money back.

Do you have an answer as to why faithful monogamy in an unrealistic expectation? Sure, people can fall short of what they aim for but how is that an argument to set your sights lower? Should the fact many people will lie during their lives mean it's unrealistic to expect people to be honest?